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The
horses are listed from top to bottom in the predicted
running order. Races are scored for the scheduled
racing surface. Off turf selections in the race heading is the
predicted order of finish if the race is transferred to the main track.
Factors used in scoring
races are speed, class, conditions, day intervals
between starts, weight carried, distance/surface record,
jockey/trainer record, purses/claiming prices,
ascending/descending beyers, change of rider,
changes in equipment/medication, and workout
times/rankings. But, by design, I keep it simple
and readable. At a quick glance, you can analyze a
race with respect to the class of the field, and the
abundance or lack of early speed.
Race Heading:
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track |
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race |
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time of day
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age
restriction |
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sex
restriction |
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race distance |
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race surface (blank: main track, T: turf course) |
|
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race type or class |
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purse in thousands |
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predicted running order if turf race transferred to
main track |
Horse detail:
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program
number (followed by asterisk for 1st time starter) |
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horse name
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age/sex/state-bred/sire-rank*
(ASBredSire)
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jockey
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weight
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trainer
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lifetime races ** |
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estimated fractions at the quarter and half
mile.
For first time starters, workouts less than 4 furlongs are
used to estimate 1/4 mile, workouts of 4 furlongs and longer are
used to estimate 1/2 mile. European horses with no
American races have no fractional times. In this case,
time form ratings, purses, distances, and record are used to
score races. For quarter horse races, the estimated
finishing times are listed in the 1/4
column. |
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pace
difference (+/-) *** |
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estimated final time or final score (Fin) |
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predicted
running order first call (Spd) - the 1/4 column sorted |
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average purse
value in thousands adjusted for state bred or restricted
races ($$) |
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predicted
running order finish (Fin) |
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morning line
odds (M/L) |
* The sire's, or dam sire's, current year
ranking to date (whichever is higher), in the category that applies to today's race. This ranking is
based on earnings of the top 500 sires of North American thoroughbreds in each
of these five categories - turf,
sprint, mile, route, and all-weather (for main tracks with synthetic surfaces). The rankings are in the category corresponding to
today's scheduled surface and distance. The lower the number, the higher
the ranking. Sires not ranked in the top 500 will have a ranking of
zero (0). I find these sire rankings helpful
in handicapping maiden and turf races. First time starters can often be
handicapped based solely on this statistic.
** This number can be
useful when considering maiden and condition races. For example, a horse
with 42 lifetime starts is usually not a good bet if he hasn't broken his maiden yet. I favor lightly raced horses in Mdn, MSW, N2L, N3L,
and N4L (maiden claiming, maiden special weight, and non-winners of X lifetime
races).
The better horses usually clear their conditions early in their career.
*** the difference in lengths
between the estimated first and second quarters. For example, a horse with
fractions :22-0 :46-0 gets a (-10) pace difference because, at 5 horse lengths
per second, he runs the second quarter 10 lengths slower than the first. A
horse that runs :24-0 :48-0 gets a (0) pace difference because he runs the
second quarter in exactly the same time as the first. So, a horse with
:25-0 :49-0 gets a (+5). This is NOT an indication of total speed.
It merely gives a indication of running style with respect to the first two
quarters of a race. I use this column to determine
how much early speed / late speed is in the race. A race with all positive
numbers in this column has no true front-runners. Conversely, a race with
all negative numbers in this column has no true closers. This is where we
find lone speed and lone closers, although most races have no significant bias
one way or another.
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