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The
horses are listed from top to bottom in the predicted
running order. Races are scored for the scheduled
racing surface. Factors used in scoring
races are speed, class, conditions, day intervals
between starts, weight carried, distance/surface record,
jockey/trainer record, purses/claiming prices,
ascending/descending beyers, change of rider,
changes in equipment/medication, and workout
times/rankings. But, by design, I keep it simple
and readable. At a quick glance, you can analyze a
race with respect to the class of the field, and the
abundance or lack of early speed.
Race Heading:
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track |
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race |
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time of day
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age
restriction |
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sex
restriction |
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race distance |
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race surface (dirt track if blank, T: turf,
O: off turf if known in advance) |
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race type or class |
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purse in thousands |
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predicted finish if turf race transferred to main track, or if race is run on wet surface |
Horse detail:
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program
number
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horse name (profile picks displayed in bold print, capital horses are capitalized)
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change in equipment, medication/age/sex/state-bred/sire-rank*
(CASBrdSire)
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jockey
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weight
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trainer
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lifetime races ** |
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estimated fractions at the quarter and half
mile.
For first time starters, workouts less than 4 furlongs are
used to estimate 1/4 mile, workouts of 4 furlongs and longer are
used to estimate 1/2 mile. European horses with no
American races have no fractional times. |
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close *** |
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estimated final time or final score (Fin) - no score if entered for 'main track only' |
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predicted
running order first call (Spd) - the 1/4 column sorted |
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average purse
value in thousands, adjusted for state bred or restricted
races ($$) |
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predicted
running order finish (Fin) - the 1st Fin column sorted |
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morning line
odds (M/L) |
* C - equipment or mediation change (b: blinkers on, -b: blinkers off, L: first time lasix), A - age, S - sex, Brd - state bred, Sire - cumulative rankings of the sire and sire's sire (top), and dam's sire (bottom), in the category that applies to today's race. This ranking is
based on earnings of the top 500 sires of North American thoroughbreds in each
of these five categories - turf,
sprint, mile, route, and all-weather (for main tracks with synthetic surfaces). The rankings are in the category corresponding to
today's scheduled surface and distance. The lower the number, the higher
the ranking. To get a excellent ranking in this column, a horse must be be well bred, top and bottom. Horses by sires not ranked in the top 500 will have no number in this column.
If a horse is entered for the 'main track only' in a turf race, the sire ranking for main track will be displayed. I find these sire rankings helpful
in handicapping maiden and turf races. First time starters can often be
handicapped based solely on this statistic.
** This number can be
useful when considering maiden and condition races. For example, a horse
with 42 lifetime starts is usually not a good bet if he hasn't broken his maiden yet. I favor lightly raced horses in Mdn, MSW, N2L, N3L,
and N4L (maiden claiming, maiden special weight, and non-winners of X lifetime
races).
The better horses usually clear their conditions early in their career.
*** the estimated difference in beaten lengths from the half mile to the finish.
A positive value in this column is an indication of a horse's tendency to pass tired horses in the stretch, and gain lengths on the leaders. I use this column to determine
how many front-runners vs closers are in the race. A race with all positive
numbers in this column has no true front-runners. Conversely, a race with
all negative numbers in this column has no true closers. This is where we
find lone speed and lone closers, although most races have no significant bias
one way or another.
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