A race in which only one horse shows a negative value in the +/- column, and is
ranked #1 in the SPD column.
This scenario usually identifies a race with no early speed, and should benefit the
front runner. Race 10 at Turfway Park on 10/8/09 was a good example of lone
speed. The 5 horse, Cold Feet, our top
choice, earned his #1 ranking in the SPD column with the fastest quarter mile fraction
(23.6), but what made him lone speed on our system was
the only negative value (-3) in the +/- column. This fact
alone doesn't automatically make a horse our top pick, but it improves his
chances dramatically. Cold Feet wired this field and paid $9.00 to win,
and they ran 5-7-3-9. Exacta/tri/super: $42, $206, and $983.
||A race in which one horse
ranks best in SPD and $$ columns. Usually a good bet, a front runner
dropping down in class often times goes wire to wire no
matter the distance. For example, Indisputable, the
10 horse at Sam Houston on 3/5/12, showed the best first
quarter with a 22.6, and had the best class number by
far, as illustrated by his 30 in the $$ column.
Indispubable won in wire to wire fashion.
in which only one horse shows a positive value in the +/- column, and whose
fractions are just fast enough to stay in touch with the field. Not many
horses go from last to first, so lone closers are not always our top selections,
but they hit the board frequently and should be used on trifecta and superfecta
tickets. In Mountaineer's 4 th race on 3/4/12, the
1 horse (Proudtobealeader) showed the only positive value in
this column (+9), and closed as expected. He ran
down tired horses in the stretch to win, and paid $22.20.
A race in which
only one horse, with at least one start, shows a zero in the +/- column when all
other horses show big values in either direction.
This usually is indicative of a horse that has little or
no early speed, but sustains his pace, and should like
races of one mile or longer. He may also close
well in sprints, when an abundance of early speed
exists. This scenario should place a horse behind
the early speed, just ahead of the deep closers, giving
him the perfect trip. Catbow, the #1 horse in Sunland Park's 10 race on
1/20/09, fit the description of lone zero. He came running at 60-1, and got up for 3rd,
making the 7-12-1-8 superfecta pay $4278 for a dollar.
||A race in which one horse in our top selections
has a sire ranking under 100, when no other horse in the race has the same. This usually identifies a horse that has superior breeding
or pedigree for the scheduled surface and distance. Tiz Biz, the 1 horse in race 2 at Sam Houston on 3/4/12, fit this profile exactly
with a 37 sire rank (turf / route), and was our top selection in the race after the 4 scratched. This son of Tiz Now by a Storm Cat mare didn't disappoint, paying $6.60 to win. Combine this profile with
class or pace profiles, and you may have found your key selection on the ticket. I often use this profile in maiden and turf races, even if the horse
is not our top pick.
Lone Race Fit
||A top selection who has a $$ value comparable to the purse of today's race,
when all other horses are either dropping in class or stepping up. This profile usually points to a horse who has been competing at this race level, and
is more likely to be fit to run. Class-droppers, especially in claiming races, are often times on the way down the class ladder because of
injury. In Parx race 3 on 1/30/12, Pleasureville Miss fit this profile perfectly. Her 18 class ($$) was almost equal to the race purse ($17K), while
the rest of the field appeared to be dropping from the 27-30K range. Pleasureville Miss paid $35.40 to win.
||A top selection who has a change in equipment or
medication since his last start. For example, b: blinkers on -b: blinkers off L: first time lasix. These types of changes typically make horses improve from their last
start, and indicate that their handlers are trying to win. The 3 horse, El Barron in Turfway's 9th race on 1/12/12, added blinkers
and wired the field in a romp. This colt kept his mind on running and won easily, paying $8.00 to win.
Lone KY Bred
Big Vic, the 5
horse in Hawthorne's 10th race on 4/5/08, had to be
considered because of one fact alone. This race
appears to be restricted to Illinois breds, except for
one horse - Big Vic. He was a first time starter,
and third selection on our sheet, but finished on top,
paying $9.00 to win. Lone Kentucky breds should be
considered in races with all common state breds such as
Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Illinois.
The above profiles
consider pace or pedigree, but in some rare cases, both
types of profiles may exist for a particular horse.
In Finger Lakes 7th race on 5/5/08, Cash Rich, the #1
horse, was a speed-class profile by our definition, top
sprint sire ranking (21), and lone Kentucky bred in a
field of NY breds. I would have been elated to get
the morning line (4-1) on this one, but he only paid
$3.60 to win. This race would be considered a
'green light' to make a more sizable wager than usual,
and key this one in the gimmicks.